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05 JANUARY 2016

The Most Important Design Jobs Of The Future

"Design has matured from a largely stylistic endeavor to a field tasked with solving thorny technological and social problems, an evolution that will accelerate as companies enlist designers for increasingly complex opportunities, from self-driving cars to human biology. 'Over the next five years, design as a profession will continue to evolve into a hybrid industry that is considered as much technical as it is creative,' says Dave Miller, a recruiter at the design consultancy Artefact. 'A new wave of designers formally educated in human-centered design—taught to weave together research, interaction, visual and code to solve incredibly gnarly 21st-century problems—will move into leadership positions. They will push the industry to new heights of sophistication.'"

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21st Century skillscareercritical skillsexponentially advancing technologiesfuture careerfuture castingfuture of design • gnarly problems • human biologyhuman-centred design • hybrid industry • increasingly complex opportunities • maturing discipline • predicting the futurepredictions • self-driving car • technical and creative • technological progress • thorny problems • thorny social problems • thorny technological problems

CONTRIBUTOR

Simon Perkins
05 OCTOBER 2014

Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction, and Social Dreaming

"Today designers often focus on making technology easy to use, sexy, and consumable. In Speculative Everything, Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby propose a kind of design that is used as a tool to create not only things but ideas. For them, design is a means of speculating about how things could be–to imagine possible futures. This is not the usual sort of predicting or forecasting, spotting trends and extrapolating; these kinds of predictions have been proven wrong, again and again. Instead, Dunne and Raby pose 'what if' questions that are intended to open debate and discussion about the kind of future people want (and do not want).

Speculative Everything offers a tour through an emerging cultural landscape of design ideas, ideals, and approaches. Dunne and Raby cite examples from their own design and teaching and from other projects from fine art, design, architecture, cinema, and photography. They also draw on futurology, political theory, the philosophy of technology, and literary fiction. They show us, for example, ideas for a solar kitchen restaurant; a flypaper robotic clock; a menstruation machine; a cloud–seeding truck; a phantom–limb sensation recorder; and devices for food foraging that use the tools of synthetic biology. Dunne and Raby contend that if we speculate more–about everything–reality will become more malleable. The ideas freed by speculative design increase the odds of achieving desirable futures."

(Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby, 2013)

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2013alternative visionsAnthony Dunne • Belgrade • Belgrade New Media Festival • Charles Avery • conceptual designdesign approachesdesign idealsdesign ideasDesign Interactions (MA) • desirable futures • emerging cultural landscape • extrapolating • Fiona Raby • Frederik Pohl • future contextsfuture forecastingfuturology • how things could be • ictional scenarios • idealism • ideas freed by speculative design • interaction design • literary fiction • Michio Kaku • modelling possible realities • new media festival • open debate and discussion • philosophy of technologyPhysics of the Impossible (2008) • political theory • possible futures • potential futures • predictions • Resonate festival • Royal College of Art • scenario building • sci-fiscience fiction • social dreaming • speculative design • Speculative Everything Design (2013) • speculative fictionsuspend disbelief • the future people want • Trinity Laban Conservatoire of Music and Dance • we speculate • what if

CONTRIBUTOR

Simon Perkins
19 NOVEMBER 2013

TechNyou: Critical Thinking

"The resource covers basic logic and faulty arguments, developing student's critical thinking skills. Suitable for year 8–10, focused on science issues, the module can be adapted to suit classroom plans."

"TechNyou was established to meet a growing community need for balanced and factual information on emerging technologies. We are funded by the Australian Government Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIISRTE). We operate in partnership with the University of Melbourne, where our office is based."

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2011animated presentationAustralian Government • betting system • biasBlaise PascalBridge8 • broken logic • causal modes of comprehensioncausation • certainty • coincidenceconfidenceconsequences • counter-argument • critical thinkingdeceptiondecision makingDepartment of Industry Innovation Science Research and Tertiary Education (DIISRTE) • does not follow • emerging technologiesevidence-based argumentexpert advice • factual information • fallacious arguments • fallacy • false dilemma • faulty arguments • formal fallacy • forms of logic • gamblers fallacy • gamblinggullibility • head scratching questions • human behaviour • identify patterns • inference • informal fallacy • irrefutable data • James Hutson • logical argument • logical fallacylogical rationalitylogical rules of inferencelogical structurelogical-analytical paradigm • logically impossible • logically true • mathematical conceptsmathematical patternmathematicsmental tricksMike Mcraemisleadingmisunderstandingnon sequituropinionoversimplificationpatternspatterns of meaning • Pierre de Fermat • play the ball not the player • precautionary principle • precautionary tale • predictions • premise • probabilistic outcomes • probability • public informationreckon • repeated observations • risk • rules of logic • science issuessensemaking • straw-man arguments • TechNyou • tertiary education • theoriesthinking skillstrustunethical behaviourUniversity of Melbourne

CONTRIBUTOR

Liam Birtles
17 JULY 2013

The Social-Media Bubble is Quietly Deflating

"It might be over. Social–media companies drew only 2 percent of the venture capital headed to Internet–based enterprises last quarter, according to data published on Tuesday by CB Insights, a research firm that tracks venture–capital investment. In the two–year stretch that ended in the middle of 2012, social–media companies took in at least 6 percent of overall venture capital invested in Internet companies each quarter. But for three of the last four quarters, those social startups have brought in 2 percent or less (with the outlier quarter largely the result of a huge investment in Pinterest earlier this year). The peak came in the third quarter of 2011, when social companies led by Twitter took in 21 percent of the total $3.8 billion in Internet deals by venture capital firms."

(Joshua Brustein, 16 July 2013, Businessweek)

Fig.1 Andreas L avl42 (27 March 2012). "Skyline with Cranes" [http://www.flickr.com/photos/avl42/6880333552/].

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2012ads • Anand Sanwal • Ashlee Vance • banner ad • big dataBloomberg BusinessweekBloomberg LPbusiness • CB Insights • click-through ratecloud computing • consumer-oriented application • e-commerce • economic bubble • Facebook • financial bubble • grouponInternet boom • Internet bubble • market bubble • NASDAQPinterestpredictions • price bubble • Silicon Valleysocial media • social media bubble • social media companies • social media startups • speculation • speculative bubble • Twitterventure capital • venture capitalists • Zynga

CONTRIBUTOR

Simon Perkins
07 FEBRUARY 2013

The Strategic Plan is Dead. Long Live Strategy

"The approach we developed in working with our clients at Monitor Institute is what we call adaptive strategy. We create a roadmap of the terrain that lies before an organization and develop a set of navigational tools, realizing that there will be many different options for reaching the destination. If necessary, the destination itself may shift based on what we learn along the way.

Creating strategies that are truly adaptive requires that we give up on many long–held assumptions. As the complexity of our physical and social systems make the world more unpredictable, we have to abandon our focus on predictions and shift into rapid prototyping and experimentation so that we learn quickly about what actually works. With data now ubiquitous, we have to give up our claim to expertise in data collection and move into pattern recognition so that we know what data is worth our attention. We also know that simple directives from the top are frequently neither necessary nor helpful. We instead find ways to delegate authority, get information directly from the front lines, and make decisions based on a real–time understanding of what's happening on the ground. Instead of the old approach of 'making a plan and sticking to it,' which led to centralized strategic planning around fixed time horizons, we believe in 'setting a direction and testing to it,' treating the whole organization as a team that is experimenting its way to success.

This approach wouldn't surprise anyone in the world of current military strategy. Recent generations of military thinkers have long since moved beyond the traditional approach, most notably famed fighter pilot John Boyd. He saw strategy as a continuous mental loop that ran from observe to orient to decide and finally to act, returning immediately to further observation. By adopting his mindset (with a particular emphasis on the two O's, given our turbulent context), we can get much better at making strategy a self–correcting series of intentional experiments.

To provide structure to this fluid approach, we focus on answering a series of four interrelated questions about the organization's strategic direction: what vision you want to pursue, how you will make a difference, how you will succeed, and what capabilities it will take to get there.

The skills and mindset for today's strategic planning will come from continuously asking ourselves these questions about our organizations, programs, and initiatives. Once we accept Dwight D. Eisenhower's sage advice that 'Plans are useless, but planning is everything,' we will be ready to adapt to whatever curveballs the twenty–first century sees fit to throw."

(Dana O'Donovan & Noah Rimland Flower, 10 Jan 2013, Stanford Social Innovation Review)

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adapting to changeadaptive approach • adaptive strategy • becomingcentralisation • continuous mental loop • data is ubiquitous • decision makingDwight Eisenhower • evolving trajectory • experimentation • experimenting to success • fixed time horizons • fluid approach • John Boyd • military strategy • military thinkers • Monitor Institute • navigational tools • pattern recognitionplanning • plans are useless • predictionsrapid prototyping • real-time understanding • roadmap • shifting destinations • strategic directionstrategic planningtactical engagementturbulent contextuncertain environmentsunpredictability

CONTRIBUTOR

Simon Perkins
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